Sign In Start Free Trial
Account

Add to playlist

Create a Playlist

Modal Close icon
You need to login to use this feature.
  • Book Overview & Buying Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python
  • Table Of Contents Toc
  • Feedback & Rating feedback
Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
4.2 (30)
close
close
Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

4.2 (30)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
close
close
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Combining forecasts

We have generated forecasts by using many techniques – some univariate, some machine learning, and so on. But at the end of the day, we would need a single forecast, and that means choosing a forecast or combining a variety. The most straightforward option is to choose the algorithm that does the best in the validation dataset, which in our case is LightGBM. We can think of this selection as another function that takes the forecasts that we generated as inputs and combines them into a final forecast. Mathematically, this can be represented as follows:

Here, is the function that combines N forecasts. We can use the function to choose the best-performing model in the validation dataset. However, this function can be as complex as it wants to be, and choosing the right function while balancing bias and variance is a must.

Notebook alert

To follow along with the code, use the 01-Forecast Combinations.ipynb notebook in the chapter09...

Unlock full access

Continue reading for free

A Packt free trial gives you instant online access to our library of over 7000 practical eBooks and videos, constantly updated with the latest in tech

Create a Note

Modal Close icon
You need to login to use this feature.
notes
bookmark search playlist download font-size

Change the font size

margin-width

Change margin width

day-mode

Change background colour

Close icon Search
Country selected

Close icon Your notes and bookmarks

Delete Bookmark

Modal Close icon
Are you sure you want to delete it?
Cancel
Yes, Delete

Delete Note

Modal Close icon
Are you sure you want to delete it?
Cancel
Yes, Delete

Edit Note

Modal Close icon
Write a note (max 255 characters)
Cancel
Update Note

Confirmation

Modal Close icon
claim successful

Buy this book with your credits?

Modal Close icon
Are you sure you want to buy this book with one of your credits?
Close
YES, BUY